NT-24-X11: Modeling Real-Time Population Density of North Atlantic Right Whales and Database Support for Cetacean, Sea Turtle, and Other Wildlife Observations in the United States North Atlantic Exclusive Economic Zone

To aid BOEM’s ongoing modeling efforts, this study aims to develop a near real-time (NRT) modeling system for the endangered North Atlantic right whale population and a survey segment database of cetacean and other marine wildlife observations. The modeling system will predict whale density across the eastern seaboard using real-time visual and acoustic observations, coupled with environmental covariates.The study objectives are to integrate various survey datasets, including aerial and ship surveys, into a segment database and develop NRT models that can respond more quickly and flexibly to shifts in species space use and phenology. BOEM and the National Marine Fisheries Service will fund this study jointly.Initially, the system will serve as a research and development testbed, allowing a collaborative team of developers to address statistical challenges and refine software workflow. After the effectiveness of the density models has been established, daily predictions will be made operational and disseminated to the public. The system's capabilities could be expanded to issue short-term forecasts and encompass additional species, contingent on data availability and the development of suitable methods.